Social media recently caught on to the humanitarian crisis in Yemen, and in particular its severe food insecurity. Predictions are that Yemenis at a high level of food insecurity will increase to 40% of the population by the end of 2020, up from 25% in February of this year (FAO, 2020). Yemen is an especially complex situation, and conflict is by no means the only driver of its food insecurity. Covid-19 has been an additional burden alongside locusts and floods (FAO, 2020). Yemen had problems with food security even before the conflict, partially due to poverty levels (Oxfam, 2017).
Nevertheless, conflict is a very important factor in Yemen’s crisis and this is not an unusual relationship: there is a positive correlation between countries with significant conflict and those that are significantly food insecure (Werft, 2015). This isn’t surprising – conflict puts workers, livestock, natural resources and land at risk (FAO, n.d.a).
It is imports that are currently causing the greatest problems in Yemen. Pre-war 90% of Yemen’s food came from foreign food production, and blockades have hugely reduced this influx. Food that is getting in is now prohibitively expensive (Oxfam, 2017). Agriculture does provide the income of over half of Yemen’s population, however, and reliance on imports have left them especially vulnerable where greater local food production may have been partially protective (Oxfam, 2017). From a veterinary perspective, the situation raises some interesting wider questions about agriculture’s role in conflict situations and in providing food security. So, what is the relationship between conflict and agriculture? And what can we do to mitigate the impacts of conflict on agriculture, thereby reducing the risk of food insecurity?
Food (In)Security
It is first important to understand what food insecurity officially means. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO, n.d.b), food security is “when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. Food insecurity is simply when people do not have this access. Food insecurity does not only result in people on the brink of famine: the malnutrition it causes also makes them more vulnerable to disease and other health issues (Oxfam, 2017).
How Does Conflict Impact Agriculture?
Agriculture itself is prone to attack in conflict. Its reliance on its workforce being out in vulnerable, open spaces and the value of the products it handles can make it an attractive target (Pugliese, 2014) or source of revenue for combatants (Eklund et al, 2017). Food can be such a target that some communities affected by conflict have asked the UN not to provide it despite their need, as they feel it places them at increased risk: a phenomenon known as the asset/liability paradox (Lautze et al, 2012). Other targeting of agriculture in conflict can include attacking markets, poisoning water supplies, allowing combatants to loot as their payment and preventing livestock migration (Lautze et al, 2012).
On top of targeting, conflict results in mass population displacement, both forcing people to leave their farms behind and putting huge pressure on the resources of host communities (FAO, n.d.a). Land abandonment and outmigration are common outcomes of conflict that impact the food security of both the places left behind and the new destinations (Eklund et al, 2017). A study in the South Kivu region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo illustrates this: while one agricultural community was almost entirely displaced another, sheltered by its geography, received many of the local refugees (Cox, 2012).
Other farmers do not flee but instead join the conflict. Generally, few of these rural workers who join armed forces had any ambition to do so, but are finally forced into it as a means of protection, survival or escape when they perceive their lives to be at risk whether or not they fight (Lautze et al, 2012). It does, however, still remove them from the agricultural workforce.
Impacts are not always direct, with other factors such as loss of infrastructure and reduced employment also playing important roles (Eklund et al, 2017). Damage to property and shelter may incur costs that farmers can only cover by selling their livestock, while lack of access to veterinary medicines, both preventative and as treatments, may also result in livestock loss (Cox, 2012).
The impact of conflict on an area’s agriculture is dependent on its history and prior situation. The colonial and post-independence focus on using the best land for plantations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is a good example of this, as it increased the vulnerability of its populations to food insecurity even before the many years of conflict (Cox, 2012). Yemen’s reliance on imports can be seen as a similar risk factor.
Any combination of these factors may blend to severely damage a country’s agricultural sector and lead to food insecurity. Ultimately, though, the impact of conflict on agriculture is dependent on the type of conflict as well as a range of geographic, social and economic factors (Eklund et al, 2017). Agriculture can even be promoted strategically in conflicts, as seen in the maintenance of high intensity food production by the Islamic State in areas of Syria and Iraq (Eklund et al, 2017).
The type of agriculture is especially important, as will be discussed later. Even within one conflict and one country, the manner and degree of impact of conflict on both agriculture and food security will vary. For example, compared to pre-conflict, Eklund et al (2017) found that different areas of Islamic State-controlled Syria and Iraq had increased or decreased cropland. These variations are important to understand in trying to protect agriculture from the effects of conflict.
The Impact of Agriculture on Conflict
The relationship runs the other way, too.
It is well known that there is a strong correlation between poor or negative economic growth and the outbreak of civil war, with some evidence that the effect is especially potent when economic shocks hit agricultural areas. This is believed to be because agriculture is highly labour-intensive, where many sectors are more capital-intensive, and so price shocks hit the income of agricultural workers disproportionately hard (Fjelde, 2015). The theory is that the opportunity-cost mechanism then comes into play: where there is comparatively more opportunity to be gained from fighting than from farming, farmers are more likely to join armed groups to sustain themselves or to express grievances against the state (Fjelde, 2015). Poverty also makes farmers more likely to support rebel groups, who may control access to many resources and offer protection to the poor they know are fundamental to their own success (Fjelde, 2015). As raised in the previous section, joining the conflict is often seen as a final resort for farmers whose lives and livelihoods are at risk either way. The above was all seen in both Sierra Leone and Rwanda (Fjelde, 2015). Protecting agriculture in peacetime is therefore one important tool in preventing armed conflict from breaking out in the first place.
Preparation and Response
So, how can agriculture be made more resilient and prepared for armed conflict? And how can a response be built where a crisis has already occurred that will improve the situation?
Preparing a food production system for conflict is extremely difficult (FAO, n.d.a) but conflict-resistant agricultural production is not impossible. A study in Nigeria and Mali found that fisheries were the most secure form of agriculture in conflicts there, followed by small ruminants kept near to the farmer’s house (Pugliese, 2014). This latter has been found in several studies: small livestock or horticulture plots kept close to the home have been found to be protective of rural workers and their produce, particularly as it does not require them to go out into exposed fields (Lautze et al, 2012). This demonstrates that the type of farming is of particular importance in building a conflict-resistant sector.
In terms of response where a crisis has already occurred, there can be no uniform approach. Individual situations must have individual solutions, depending on what has happened (which the FAO illustrate here). This can span from training ex-soldiers in agriculture to boosting local seed production (FAO, n.d.). Responses that are not built around the specifics of a country’s situation, its history, food economy and cultural structures, risk making things worse instead of better (Lautze et al, 2012). Determining vulnerability – who in a community is vulnerable, what from and to what extent – is especially important in designing interventions (Lautze et al, 2012).
In Yemen, for example, many of those farmers fleeing the conflict managed to take their livestock with them and are now being supported to feed, care for and protect their animals in the difficult circumstances of refugee settings (FAO, n.d.). The response needed in this sort of situation is very different from, say, one where virtually all livestock have been stolen, killed or left behind.
Post conflict, agriculture can be a way for communities to recover from protracted conflict by rebuilding social networks and providing purpose, security, income and food. This recovery can include diverse forms of farming such as bee keeping (Lautze et al, 2012).
Conclusion
A protection agenda for agriculture and food is needed in conflict, and the principles of this can be drawn from International Humanitarian Law (Lautze et al, 2012). Further research is needed into the mechanisms behind conflict’s impact on agriculture and land use (Eklund et al, 2017) and each conflict must also be examined to understand the particular relationships involved. Only then can appropriate interventions be designed. In 2012, Lautze et al called for the following four things in the Agriculture Conflict Stability Report which are still highly pertinent:
“1. Conflict prevention through agriculture
2. A protection agenda for agriculture in protracted crises
3. The regeneration of the fabric of societies through agriculture during and after protracted crises
4. A robust knowledge, management and research agenda”
If these four suggestions are applied, it is likely that the risk of food insecurity due to conflict can be significantly reduced. But any overarching framework would have to be flexible enough to allow the specific dynamics in one country or area to be fully incorporated into a response. As with so many One Health and Global Health issues, context is key. When looking at current and pending crises, including the one devastating so many in Yemen, context should be part of the professional and public discussion.
References
- Cox, T.P. (2012) Farming the battlefield: the meanings of war, cattle and soil in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo. Disasters, 36(2), pp.233-248.
- Eklund, L., Degerald, M., Brandt, M., Prishchepov, A.V., and Pilesjö, P. (2017) How conflict affects land use: agricultural activity in areas seized by the Islamic State. Environmental Research Letters, 12, 054004.
- FAO (2020) Yemen sees return to alarming levels of food security. [online]. Available at: http://www.fao.org/emergencies/fao-in-action/stories/stories-detail/en/c/1300038/ [Accessed 16th August 2020].
- FAO (n.d.a) Emergencies: Conflicts. [online]. Available at: http://www.fao.org/emergencies/emergency-types/conflicts/en/ [Accessed 16th August 2020].
- FAO (n.d.b) Chapter 2. Food security: concepts and measurements. [online]. Available at: http://www.fao.org/3/y4671e/y4671e06.htm#bm06.2 [Accessed 31st August 2020].
- Fjelde, H. (2015) Farming or Fighting? Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa. World Development, 67, pp.525-534.
- Lautze, S., Raven-Roberts, A., Sotomayor, D., Seid, F. and Martin-Greentree, M. (2012) Agriculture, Conflict and Stability: A call for renewed focus on protection and conflict sensitive programming in agriculture and food and nutrition security. FAO High-Level Expert Forum [online]. Available at: http://www.fao.org/fileadmin/templates/cfs_high_level_forum/documents/Agriculture-Conflict-Stability_Lautze_01.pdf [Accessed 29th August 2020].
- Oxfam (2017) Missiles and Food: Yemen’s Man-Made Food Security Crisis [online]. Available at: https://oxfamilibrary.openrepository.com/bitstream/handle/10546/620388/bn-missiles-food-security-yemen-201217-en.pdf;jsessionid=FE762D5CC763EAFAD9CFF04ED653936C?sequence=4 [Accessed 31st August 2020].
- Pugliese, J. (2014) The Impact of Conflict and Instability on Agriculture in Mali and Nigeria. Brookings [online]. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2014/09/08/the-impact-of-conflict-and-instability-on-agriculture-in-mali-and-nigeria/ [Accessed 15th August 2020].
- Werft, M. (2015) Arms and Agriculture: Growing Food in Conflict Zones. Global Citizen [online]. Available at: https://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/arms-and-agriculturegrowing-food-in-conflict-zones/ [Accessed 15th August 2020].